Twin Troubles

All year long we’ve been anxiously anticipating an economic turn-around. Yet, despite lots of good news, we can’t seem to rebound.

Truth is, we won’t rebound until we see improvement in one or both of the 2 critical areas listed below:

1.  Real Estate- Watch closely local numbers relating to:

a. Foreclosure & Short Sale activity- What percentage of the closings involve distress properties like foreclosures and short-sales. (Presently, foreclosures show no signs of abating.)

b. Mortgage Interest Rates- We have almost two more years of Adjustable rate resets, with increases causing even more foreclosure activity.

c.   Supply of Inventory- or number of listings, year-over-year.

d.   Closed Sales- year-over-year.

e.   Average closing prices-per square foot.

f.    Month’s supply of inventory- or Absorption Rate).

2.   Unemployment

a.    Overall Unemployment Rate –Nationally, now at 9.8% with 15 million people unemployed and 6.3 million out of work for at least 6 months. Also, you should consider what is happening locally this month, versus the same month last year.

b.   Unemployment Claims- New claims recently dropped to 407,000 nationally, the lowest number since July.

c.    New Jobs Creation -Especially in the Private Sector-  We need approximately 150,000 new jobs including in the Public Sector every month for an economic recovery to occur, yet we only added 3.

Pay close attention to both of these indicators during the coming months and be sure to share your findings with either Buyers or Sellers.